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今日早晨,紐西蘭聯儲(RBNZ) 如市場廣泛預期般,將官方現金利率(OCR) 下調50個基點至3.75%。這是自2025年8月以來連續第三次降息50個基點,旨在刺激經濟與就業。
在政策聲明中,紐西蘭聯儲貨幣政策委員會指出,整體通脹已接近2%中點,核心通脹也持續回落至目標區間。委員會對當前經濟前景持信心,認為通脹能夠維持在目標範圍內,因此2025年將繼續放鬆貨幣政策。
紐西蘭聯儲行長奧爾(Adrian Orr) 強調,國內通脹壓力正在減弱,主要原因是產能過剩,但全球經濟的不確定性依然存在,包括地緣政治緊張與潛在貿易壁壘,可能影響經濟前景。紐西蘭聯儲行長奧爾表示,若經濟狀況符合預期,未來仍有進一步降息的空間。

紐西蘭聯儲OCR利率預測(來源:紐西蘭聯儲)
從2月貨幣政策聲明的OCR軌跡(粉色曲線) 來看,紐西蘭聯儲的降息態度較先前更為積極。預計OCR將於2025年底降至3%,意味著還將進一步降息75個基點。
雖然聲明未明確指出未來降息的具體時間,但從走勢來看,下一次降息可能會發生在2025年年中至年末,具體取決於經濟發展狀況。這一預期與奧爾行長的表態一致,即如果通脹持續下降,紐西蘭聯儲將進一步放寬貨幣政策。

紐元兌美元4小時圖分析(來源:TradingView)
在紐西蘭聯儲偏鴿派的決策公布後,紐元/美元短暫下跌,但迅速收復失地。
從技術角度來看,紐元/美元的整體走勢未發生明顯變化。該貨幣對近期突破了三年低點附近的整理區間,暗示可能出現看漲反轉。
如果0.5690(0.5700)支撐位穩固,表明市場已充分消化紐西蘭聯儲的鴿派立場。此外,近期美元走弱可能進一步支持紐元的上行趨勢。
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