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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Ultima Markets , regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom昨日,美元指數跌至數月低點,歐元與英鎊成為兌美元表現最強的貨幣。市場情緒的轉變主要受到對川普政策的擔憂所驅動。
此前,川普升級關稅措施,引發全球投資人對經濟前景的憂慮,特別是美國經濟的發展前景。這加劇了市場的避險情緒,並強化了對「川普衰退」(Trumpcession)的擔憂——這一術語用來描述因川普政策可能導致的經濟衰退。
美元週二連續第二天走低,跌至三個月低點。「川普衰退」擔憂升溫,促使投資人轉向避險資產,例如美國國債,進一步壓低了債券殖利率,降低了美元計價資產的吸引力。

(美國10年期國債殖利率走勢;來源:Trading View)
與此同時,歐元攀升至近四個月高點,觸及1.0625美元左右。英鎊同樣走強,兌美元匯率接近三個月高點。
儘管市場仍在進一步觀察川普的下一步行動,但短期焦點可能會轉向即將公布的2月美國就業報告。此前的數據顯示美國就業市場依然強勁,市場預期聯準會(Fed)將維持當前政策,這通常對美元具有支撐作用。
若本週就業數據依舊強勁,美元可能會迎來短期反彈。然而,由於投資人已基本消化這一預期,美元的上行空間可能有限。此外,川普政策仍可能持續對美元構成壓力。

(2017-2018年美元指數走勢;來源:Trading View)
回顧歷史,在川普第一任期內,美元因其激進政策措施出台後經歷了長達一年的貶值,跌離十年高點。市場現在愈發擔心,「川普衰退」可能會重演,隨著更多政策措施的公布,美元或將迎來新一輪長期下行趨勢。
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