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周二,加拿大9月份的年通脹率降至1.6%,低于預期的1.8%,並從8月份的2.0%進一步下跌。根據加拿大統計局的數據,通脹的緩解主要是由于汽油價格的大幅下跌,且這是自2021年2月以來消費者價格的最小年增幅。美元兌加元的彙率接近十周低點,下跌0.15%,收盤于1.3775。

(美元兌加元日線價格圖,來源:Trading View)
自年初以來,加拿大的消費者價格穩步下降,並在上個月達到加拿大央行1%-3%目標區間的中點,因為高利率抑制了消費者需求和商業投資。因此,最新的通脹數據促使市場增加對下周降息50個基點的期望。
事實上,加拿大央行已經在過去三次政策會議上都把基准利率下調25個基點。上個月,加拿大央行行長蒂夫·麥克勒姆警告稱,通脹可能會跌破目標區間,經濟增長也可能會減弱,這加劇了市場對更大幅度50個基點降息的預期。因此,加拿大央行需要采取行動,提振經濟並防止通脹過度下降,50個基點的降息或許是合適的解決方案。

(加拿大通脹與利率,來源:加拿大統計局)
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