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上周五,瑞士國家銀行(SNB)主席馬丁·施萊格爾表示,如果有必要,可能會重新引入負利率。盡管瑞士央行並不青睐負利率政策,但為了抑制投資者對避險瑞士法郎的需求,可能會采取這一措施。受此言論影響,瑞士法郎兌美元走弱,美元兌瑞士法郎(USD/CHF)上漲0.77%,收于0.8934美元。

(美元兌瑞士法郎日線價格圖,來源:Trading View)
施萊格爾還強調,瑞士法郎在不確定時期可能仍是投資者首選的避險貨幣。雖然這帶來了挑戰,但瑞士有能力應對這些問題。他補充稱,瑞士央行將繼續致力于保持價格穩定,目標是在中期內將通脹控制在0-2%的範圍內。
瑞士曾有過負利率的經驗,過去曾利用這一政策來削弱瑞士法郎的強勢,而瑞士法郎的升值加劇了出口商在海外需求低迷時面臨的困難。然而,瑞士央行于2022年9月結束了負利率政策,與其他央行同步提高借貸成本,在成功控制通脹後轉變了政策方向。
2024年,瑞士央行已三次下調基准利率,將其降至1%,並預計未來可能會進一步降息。目前市場預期,在瑞士央行12月的會議上,降息25個基點的概率為72%,降息50個基點的概率為28%。

(瑞士國家銀行政策利率,來源:Forex Factory)
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