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周三,美國勞工統計局公布,消費者價格指數(CPI)連續第四個月上漲0.2%,與路透社調查的經濟學家預期一致。按年率計算,10月份CPI同比上漲2.6%,高于9月份的2.4%,也符合市場預測。報告發布後,美元指數上漲0.49%,收于106.48。

(美國CPI同比和核心CPI同比圖表,來源:LSEG)

(DXY日線價格圖表,來源:Trading View)
CPI數據,特別是12個月通脹率的上升,表明盡管市場普遍預期美聯儲將在12月會議上降息25個基點,但持續的高通脹可能會促使美聯儲在2025年重新評估其寬松步伐。自9月份以來,美聯儲已累計降息一個百分點。
報告發布後,根據CME集團的FedWatch工具,交易員對12月份降息25個基點的概率預期上升至82%,高于周一的58.7%。盡管部分美聯儲官員態度更為謹慎,明尼阿波利斯聯儲主席尼爾·卡什卡利在接受彭博電視采訪時表示,他有信心通脹正處于下行軌道,並指出CPI數據證實了這一趨勢。
然而,重大不確定性依然存在,特別是在選舉後可能發生的政策變動下。市場正在對未來政策方向做出大量假設,但在未來一到兩年內的實際情況仍然未知。
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隨時隨地留意市場動態
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