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根據路透社調查的大多數分析師的預期,俄羅斯央行可能在周一將關鍵利率上調100個基點至20%,與俄羅斯稱之為“特別軍事行動”開始時的水平相同。

(俄羅斯央行利率決定,來源:Investing.com)
央行官員表示,預算草案中的某些部分出乎意料。同時,俄羅斯家庭對未來一年通脹的預期在10月上升至13.4%,而9月為12.5%。這些預期被央行視為與實際通脹同樣重要的衡量標准,自4月以來一直穩步上升,僅在9月略有下降,目前已達到年初以來的最高水平。
預計今年年底通脹率將達到7.7%的央行,還面臨著來自有影響力的商界人士的壓力,他們認為高利率對經濟有害。然而,分析師表示,這種壓力不會動搖監管機構的決心。“目前,央行的任務依然非常堅定,尤其是在國家領導層經曆了比2014年和2020年更大的沖擊後,再次認識到其確保穩定的能力,”文藝複興資本的奧列格·庫茲明表示。
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