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周一,由于投資者准備迎接對全球經濟可能具有決定性的一周,美國將選出新領導人,美元指數跳空低開,下跌了0.34%。民主黨候選人卡瑪拉·哈裏斯和共和黨候選人唐納德·特朗普在民調中幾乎旗鼓相當,選舉結果可能要在投票結束數天後才能揭曉。

(美元日線價格圖,來源:TradingView)
分析師表示,特朗普的移民政策、減稅和關稅可能會推動通脹、債券收益率和美元上升,而哈裏斯則被視為政策延續的候選人。交易商將美元早盤的下跌歸因于一項備受關注的民調,顯示哈裏斯意外在艾奧瓦州領先3個百分點,主要得益于她在女性選民中的受歡迎度。
相反,普遍認為特朗普獲勝對美元有利,盡管許多人認為這一結果已被市場消化。特朗普若勝選並控制國會,影響將尤為顯著,可能引發美國國債的抛售以及美元的急劇上漲。相比之下,若哈裏斯獲勝且國會分裂,則可能迅速逆轉 “特朗普交易”,美元、黃金、比特幣和美股可能走低。
選舉結果的不確定性是市場預計美聯儲周四會選擇標准的25個基點降息,而不是再次大幅降息50個基點的原因之一。
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隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
對關注價格波動的投資者極具吸引力
流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
無對賭模式,不重新報價
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