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日本全國消費者物價指數(CPI)於 2025年1月 升至 4.0%,高於前一個月的 3.6%,創下 自2023年1月以來的最高水平。核心CPI(剔除食品價格)同比上漲 3.2%,達到 19個月新高,反映出通膨壓力依然頑固。值得注意的是,食品價格同比大幅上漲 7.8%,進一步加劇了生活成本的上升。

(日本全國CPI同比變動;數據來源:Trading Economics)

(日本全國核心CPI同比變動;數據來源:Trading Economics)
日央行升息押注持續升溫
面對通膨升溫,日本央行於 2025年1月 上調基準利率至 0.5%,進一步邁向政策正常化。此前,日央行已暗示 如果薪資增長持續支撐消費,緊縮週期將會持續推進。
本次 強於預期的CPI數據 進一步強化了市場對 日本央行未來進一步收緊政策的預期。市場普遍預期 2025年第三季度 日央行可能再度升息,但考慮到最新CPI數據凸顯通膨壓力,升息時間可能提前至2025年年中,加快貨幣政策正常化進程。
日圓短線回落,後市仍具支撐
市場對日本央行升息的押注通常會提振日圓,但日圓在數據公佈後出現明顯回落。這一走勢可能與「買預期,賣事實(Sell the news)」的市場現象類似,因日圓近期的漲勢已經在很大程度上反映市場預期。
儘管短線急跌,但日圓整體仍處於上升趨勢(或在主要日圓貨幣對中表現為下行)。

(USD/JPY 4小時走勢圖;數據來源:Trading View)
美元/日圓近期承壓,昨日一度跌破 150.00 這一關鍵心理關口,觸及兩個月低點。然而,在今早CPI數據公佈後,美元/日圓短線出現反彈跡象。
短期來看,150.00附近的反彈可能延續,甚至可能進一步上行。但從更廣泛的技術面來看,除非美元/日圓明確突破151.30阻力位,否則整體仍傾向於下行。
隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
對關注價格波動的投資者極具吸引力
流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
無對賭模式,不重新報價
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