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新西蘭聯儲周三將利率下調至4.25%,這是四個月內的第三次降息,並暗示未來將進行更大幅度的寬松,包括可能在2月再次下調50基點,因通脹趨向銀行目標。在這一決策的影響下,新西蘭元和短期利率最初上漲,因為市場中一些參與者曾預計會有更大幅度的75基點降息。NZDUSD上漲1.03%,收于0.5893。

(NZD/USD每日價格圖,來源:Trading View)
然而,新西蘭聯儲行長Adrian Orr對市場中一些人期待更大降息的預期潑了冷水,表示幾乎沒有討論超過50基點的降息。他還暗示未來可能會有更多寬松政策出台。他在政策發布後的新聞發布會上表示:“即便是降50基點,我們仍保持一定的限制性。存在顯著的産出缺口和閑置産能,因此50基點是合適的。”
分析師普遍預計央行將在2月至少再降25基點,但他們也指出,許多因素可能會在下次會議前發生變化。新西蘭聯儲沒有對未來的舉措做出明確承諾,未試圖抑制市場對未來降息速度的預期。Orr表示,央行預計直到2025年底才會達到中性利率,並估計這一利率將在2.5%至3.5%之間。中性利率對經濟既不刺激也不限制。
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隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
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流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
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