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週二,由於美國的通脹數據導致一些投資者推測加拿大央行可能會跟隨美聯儲進行大幅降息,加元兌美元小幅下跌。加拿大8月份的年通脹率放緩至2%,低於7月份的2.5%,符合加拿大央行的通脹目標,並創下自2021年2月以來的最低水平。這一結果低於市場預期的2.1%。

(加拿大CPI同比圖表,來源:Investing.com)
本月早些時候,行長蒂夫·麥克勒姆在加拿大央行的貨幣政策公告中強調,由於經濟增長疲軟,所以需要防範通脹低於目標的風險。目前加拿大的經濟增長正在放緩,第三季度的GDP預計僅爲加拿大央行預期的一半。失業率的穩步上升和經濟擴張的減速表明,這代表之前的高利率政策有效於抑制經濟。
此外,加拿大央行已連續三次下調關鍵政策利率,累計降低了75個基點至4.25%。市場預計央行官員將於下個月下調政策利率50個基點,以加快回歸更中性的政策。中性的政策立場是指利率處於所謂的中性區間,即2.25%至3.25%之間,這是一個既不限制也不刺激經濟增長的水平。因此,投資者預計2024年剩下的三次加拿大央行會議上,總計將有約100個基點的降息,意味着會有至少一次降息將超過25個基點。
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隨時隨地留意市場動態
市場易受供求關系變化的影響
對關注價格波動的投資者極具吸引力
流動性兼顧深度與多元化,無隱藏費用
無對賭模式,不重新報價
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