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公告

PMI顯商業活動回暖,美元美股上漲

25 March 2025

S&P Global 美國綜合PMI初值從2月的51.6上升至3月的53.5,創下三個月來最強增長,顯示美國私營部門活動有所回升。同時,服務業與製造業PMI數據則呈現不同走勢:

  • S&P Global 美國服務業PMI初值 上升至54.3,遠超市場預期的50.8。
  • S&P Global 美國製造業PMI初值 下降至49.8,低於2月的52.7。

(S&P Global 美國綜合PMI;來源:Trading Economics)

(S&P Global 美國服務業PMI;來源:Trading Economics)

由於美國經濟主要由服務業驅動,服務業的強勁復甦緩解了市場對川普政策可能導致經濟放緩的擔憂。因此,美股昨日延續漲勢。

美元與美股指數因樂觀情緒上揚

強勁的經濟數據提振了投資者信心,使三大美國股指全面走高,同時市場對川普關稅政策的擔憂暫時緩解。

此外,先前因「川普衰退」(Trumpcession)憂慮而受壓的美元出現溫和反彈。美元指數(DXY)三週以來首次回升至104.00以上,顯示美元回暖跡象。

(美國標普500指數,日線圖;來源:Ultima Markets MT4)

標普500指數自3月初觸及七個月低點後,已反彈超過4.5%,並重新站上5730點。然而,美國基準指數仍位於5730至5850的關鍵阻力區,市場尚未看到明確的突破訊號。

川普「對等關稅」仍存不確定性

儘管市場情緒回暖推動美股上漲,但川普計畫於4月初公布的「對等關稅」仍是投資者關注的主要不確定因素。

不過,最新政策方向似乎將重點放在少數幾個對美國商品課徵較高關稅、且與美國有較大貿易逆差的國家。此外,川普也釋出更具彈性的談判訊號,暗示相關國家可以透過降低對美關稅、改善貿易平衡來獲得關稅豁免或調整。

川普這一相對溫和的立場暫時緩解了市場對貿易緊張局勢升級的擔憂,市場樂觀情緒有所回升。

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