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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Ultima Markets , regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom4月10日公布的最新美国消费者物价指数(CPI)显示,2025年通胀首次出现下降迹象,标志着通胀压力有所缓解。
CPI同比上涨2.4%,显示出价格上涨趋势放缓;而剔除食品和能源的核心CPI同比上涨2.8%,为四年来的最低水平。这两个数据均为自2024年9月以来最令人鼓舞的通胀读数。

(美国3月CPI同比变化;来源:美国劳工统计局)
数据公布后,美元进一步走弱,市场将这一数据解读为美联储在2025年6月降息的可能性增强。据CME FedWatch工具显示,市场目前预计2025年将有3至4次降息,较此前仅预期2次大幅上升。
美元的下跌反映出投资者对美联储采取更鸽派立场的乐观预期,尤其是在持续通缩预期的推动下。
尽管通胀出现缓和迹象,但美联储仍保持谨慎态度,警告称根据特朗普总统政策近期作出的关税调整,可能带来新的通胀压力,甚至可能抵消已有的降温成效。
这一担忧已在本周多位美联储官员的讲话中被反复强调:
从近期美联储官员的表态来看,美联储未来可能继续保持谨慎、以数据为导向的政策路径,密切关注通胀趋势以及贸易政策对经济的广泛影响。
美国CPI数据发布后,美元指数下行延续至多年的低点,市场反映出对通缩趋势与降息概率上升的担忧。
与此同时,特朗普关税政策对整体经济影响的担忧日益加剧,进一步加剧美元的疲软。

(美元指数日线图;来源:Ultima Market MT5)
美元在周五亚洲时段进一步下跌,跌破100.00这一关键心理关口,创下多年新低。
尽管短期内可能出现技术性反弹,但考虑到当前经济形势与政策环境,美元整体趋势仍偏向下行,预计美元可能继续承压。
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