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追踪美元兑六种主要货币表现的美元指数上涨0.2%,至101.21。周五,美国公布的数据显示,8月份的就业增长低于预期,显示出劳动力市场正在逐步放缓。在此前7月份的增长下调至8.9万后,8月份的非农就业人数增加了14.2万,低于预期的16.4万。而8月份平均每小时工资环比上涨了0.4%,高于预期的0.3%,因此数据呈现出喜忧参半的状态。

(美国非农就业变化图表,来源:Forex Factory)

(美国平均每小时工资环比变化, 来源:Forex Factory)
在就业数据发布后,美元最初对大多数主要货币走软,但随后迅速反弹并转为上涨。这一反应是由于投资者对市场的不确定性,因为这些数据介于可以支持25个基点或50个基点降息的理由之间。根据LSEG的数据,交易员现在预计美联储在9月17日至18日的会议上有31%的可能性将政策利率从当前的5.25%至5.50%区间下调至4.75%至5%的区间。
虽然9月份大幅降息50个基点的可能性仍然较低,但周五发布的数据明确显示出劳动力市场基本面的明显恶化,增加了未来几个月至少一次大规模降息的预期。此外,美联储官员在周五表示,他们准备在即将到来的会议上开始一系列降息,并指出劳动力市场正在放缓,若不进行政策调整,情况可能会进一步恶化。
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