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上周五,美元走强,源于此前美国就业报告显示9月份就业人数创下六个月以来的最大增幅,伴随着失业率下降和显著的工资增长。这些显示出经济韧性的迹象促使市场降低了对美联储降息的预期。美元指数应声上涨0.54%,收盘于102.49。

(美元指数日线价格,来源:Trading View)
根据美国劳工统计局的数据显示,上个月非农就业岗位增加了254,000个,超出了经济学家预估的140,000个。而失业率则为4.1%,低于预期的4.2%。

(美国非农就业变化,来源:Forex Factory)
投资者对这一强劲就业增长的反应表明,即使这伴随着更加鹰派的立场,但他们更加关注经济增长。因此,根据CME集团的美联储观察工具显示,交易员们现在预计11月美联储仅有约97%的可能性将降息四分之一个百分点,高于周四的68%。
此外,尽管地缘政治发展和能源供应中断的风险持续存在,持有风险敞口的市场参与者在周末并未遇到任何重大市场变化的消息,并且在新的一周中,对进一步上涨前景充满信心。最新的中东局势显示,周日以色列对黎巴嫩和加沙地带的真主党目标进行了空袭。以色列国防部长则表示,针对宿敌伊朗的所有报复选项都在考虑之中。
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