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周三数据显示,美国上月消费者价格指数(CPI)上涨了0.2%,与7月的涨幅一致。在截至8月的过去12个月中,CPI增长了2.5%,创下自2021年2月以来的最小年度增幅,甚至低于7月的2.9%增幅。然而,剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别,8月核心CPI上涨了0.3%,高于7月的0.2%,略高于预期的0.3%涨幅。

(美国通胀数据,来源:LSEG 数据流)
这一数据显著降低了美联储下周降息50个基点的可能性。这一结果在预料之中,因为市场对9月份大幅降息的预期显得过于乐观。而美联储的重点仍然是劳动力市场数据,这使得就业数据及其修订变得相对更加重要。
由于预计美联储将降息25个基点而非50个基点,市场情绪显得有些谨慎。预计9月美元会出现小幅修正性反弹,随后在2024年底和2025年再度走弱。然而,市场仍然预期到年底前将有104个基点的降息,这意味着市场仍然预计在11月或12月的会议上将有一次50个基点的降息。
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