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美国总统特朗普宣布新一轮关税,加剧全球贸易紧张。周二,他对汽车进口征收25%关税,并威胁对半导体和制药产品进口施加进一步关税。
汽车关税旨在向欧盟和日本等贸易伙伴施压,要求降低其对美国汽车的关税。特朗普认为,欧盟对美国汽车征收10%关税,相较于美国对欧洲汽车仅2.5%的关税,是不公平的。
自特朗普一个月前就任以来,他已经宣布了一系列关税政策,进一步加剧全球贸易紧张,包括:
今日稍早,美联储公布了1月会议纪要,显示联储官员对近期关税政策对经济的潜在影响表示担忧。决策者强调,将密切关注全球贸易发展,因为这可能会影响未来的货币政策决定。
在当前经济展望方面,FOMC成员对通胀持续高于2%目标表示担忧。他们强调,在考虑任何利率调整之前,必须看到通胀进一步降温的迹象。委员会预计,实现通胀目标的过程将是渐进且可能不均衡的。
此外,他们对劳动力市场保持信心,形容当前状况“稳健”,但仍对潜在风险保持警惕。

(USDJPY 4小时图分析,来源:TradingView)
美元兑日元跌破151.30支撑位后进一步下行,主要因全球贸易担忧升温。这使该货币对可能进一步测试150.00的重要心理关口。
若贸易紧张局势因新关税政策进一步加剧,日元作为避险货币的吸引力可能增强,从而进一步施压美元兑日元。若跌破150.00,可能进一步下探148.90,但该水平的支撑力度有限。
若跌势持续,美元兑日元可能进一步跌向147.00,创下五个月低点。
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