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瑞士央行(SNB)6月调降利率0.25个百分点至1.25%,符合市场预期与该银行政策路径。 过往通胀压力源自国内服务价格的上涨。 当前核心通胀压力已减弱,而瑞士法郎出现强劲升值,央行透过利率再调整,以维持适合经济情势的货币政策。
瑞士央行提出预测,假定政策利率保持在1.25% 水平,今年平均通货膨胀率为1.3%。 然后明年会略微下降至1.1%,并在2026年进一步减至1.0%。 这些预估与3月会议无异。
经济成长方面,瑞士央行表示乐观但保持谨慎,预计2024年国内生产总值(GDP)小幅增长约1%,明年可望攀至1.5%。 SNB还预期失业率会有微升情形,但见产能利用率将保持一般平稳水准。
利率会议前,法朗曾大幅升值,兑美元汇率接近3个月高点,兑欧元汇率接近4个月高点。 欧洲议会选举中极右翼团体崛起,使法国政治动荡,投资人因而转至传统避险资产瑞士法郎。
减息决议后,法朗兑美元贬值约0.5%,向 0.89 水平靠拢。

(历史利率水平,瑞士国家银行)

(USD/CHF月线图)
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