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新西兰联储周三将利率下调至4.25%,这是四个月内的第三次降息,并暗示未来将进行更大幅度的宽松,包括可能在2月再次下调50基点,因通胀趋向银行目标。在这一决策的影响下,新西兰元和短期利率最初上涨,因为市场中一些参与者曾预计会有更大幅度的75基点降息。NZDUSD上涨1.03%,收于0.5893。

(NZD/USD每日价格图,来源:Trading View)
然而,新西兰联储行长Adrian Orr对市场中一些人期待更大降息的预期泼了冷水,表示几乎没有讨论超过50基点的降息。他还暗示未来可能会有更多宽松政策出台。他在政策发布后的新闻发布会上表示:“即便是降50基点,我们仍保持一定的限制性。存在显著的产出缺口和闲置产能,因此50基点是合适的。”
分析师普遍预计央行将在2月至少再降25基点,但他们也指出,许多因素可能会在下次会议前发生变化。新西兰联储没有对未来的举措做出明确承诺,未试图抑制市场对未来降息速度的预期。Orr表示,央行预计直到2025年底才会达到中性利率,并估计这一利率将在2.5%至3.5%之间。中性利率对经济既不刺激也不限制。
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