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周二,石油输出国组织(OPEC)在月度报告中宣布,预计2024年全球石油需求将每日增加203万桶(bpd),比上个月预测的211万桶略有下降。然而,直到上个月,OPEC仍保持自2023年7月首次发布的相同预测。收到这消息的刺激,美国原油价格应声下跌3.67%,收盘于66.24美元。

(美国原油每日价格图表,来源:Trading View)
与此同时,美国能源信息署(EIA)同日报告显示,今年全球石油需求预计将创下新高,但产量增长将低于之前的预期。EIA预计今年全球石油需求平均为每日1.031亿桶,比此前预测的1.029亿桶增加了20万桶。尽管这一消息利好于油价,但是油价在EIA报告发布后仍然承压,原因是市场对中国经济放缓感到担忧。
OPEC及其盟友原计划在10月增加产量,但由于全球经济疲软导致原油价格下滑,他们上周决定将增产计划推迟至12月。尽管市场对经济增长和石油需求,特别是中国的经济疲软,导致油价下跌,但OPEC+的减产意味着全球石油供应仍低于消费水平。
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