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周四金价盘桓在两周低位,交投于每盎司 2,370 美元。 美国经济分析局(BEA) 发布优于预期基本面数据,尽管处于高利率环境,美国经济仍保有韧性。
美国GDP录得令人印象深刻增长,第二季年化成长率为2.8%。 该数字大幅超出估值 2%,也较上一季 1.4% 的纪录有所加快。 美国经济比预期更好地抵御了高利率环境所带来的衰退威胁。
然而,通胀指标仍然顽固地处于美联储的目标之上。 持续的通胀压力可能会限制该行在即将到来的货币宽松周期里实施降息的能力。
尽管强劲的经济数据可能证明对利率调整应采取谨慎态度,金融市场仍期待货币政策将发生转变,押注美联储 9 月减息,并预计年底前有降息两次机会。
另一个可能影响金价发展的是,全球第二大黄金消费国印度的实体需求增加。 印度政府决定将黄金进口税从 15% 降至 6%,这使黄金更便宜,进而刺激需求。

(黄金价格月线图)
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