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周二,金价下跌超过1%,但随后有所回升,最终收盘于2621,跌幅为0.83%。这是近六周以来的最大百分比跌幅,这是因为最新的美国就业数据降低了对大幅降息的预期,而市场正在等待美联储最新政策会议纪要的发布以获取更明确的方向。

(金价日线图,来源:Trading View)
市场的注意力现已转向周三发布的美联储会议纪要,随后是周四的美国消费者价格指数(CPI)数据和周五的生产者价格指数(PPI)数据。预计周四即将发布的美国通胀报告将显示价格压力进一步减缓,但不太可能引发对美联储大幅降息的新一轮猜测。因此,金价的上涨可能主要由地缘政治不确定性驱动。
随着金价接近历史高位,中国可能会在短期内暂停增持黄金,但总体趋势仍然是继续积累。此外,交易员认为下个月美联储降息仅为四分之一的概率高达86%,因为上周的美国就业报告强化了这样一种看法,即不需要美联储在今年剩余时间内进行大幅降息以刺激经济。
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