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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Ultima Markets , regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom欧元区 2 月份的调和消费者价格指数(HICP)低于市场预期的 2.5%,降至 2.4%,相比 1 月份的 2.5% 略有回落。而剔除能源、食品、酒精和烟草等波动性因素的核心 CPI 也从 1 月份的 2.7% 降至 2.6%,创 2022 年 1 月以来最低水平。

(欧元区通胀率;来源:Trading Economics)

(欧元区核心通胀率;来源:Trading Economics)
通胀年率下降主要受到能源成本的影响。2 月能源价格仅上涨 0.2%,远低于 1 月的 1.9%。这一趋势符合欧洲央行将通胀维持在 2% 附近的目标。
通胀放缓增强了市场对欧洲央行在周四会议上降息 25 个基点至 2.5% 的预期,以降低借贷成本并促进经济增长。
尽管市场普遍预期降息,但欧洲央行内部对于未来宽松政策的步伐和幅度仍存分歧。欧元区经济增长疲弱,而美国产关税政策、法国和德国的政治不稳定,以及乌克兰局势等不确定因素,使得欧洲央行的决策更加复杂。
部分欧洲央行官员警告,过度降息可能会在当前不确定环境下破坏经济稳定,因此主张更为谨慎的策略。这让市场开始猜测,欧洲央行在 3 月会议上是会采取鸽派还是鹰派降息。
在欧元区 CPI 数据发布后,欧元兑美元等主要货币走强。市场普遍认为,欧洲央行可能会在 3 月会议上采取鹰派降息。
随着通胀逐步接近 2% 目标,欧洲央行可能会在 3 月降息后采取更谨慎的宽松政策,因为当前经济形势下,并不急于进一步降息。

(EUR/USD 4 小时图表分析;来源:Trading View)
欧元兑美元在欧元区 CPI 公布后再次升至 1.0500 关键阻力位。尽管欧洲央行政策调整支撑了欧元,但汇价仍受制于 1.0500 附近的阻力。
从技术角度来看,在缺乏强劲利好因素的情况下,欧元兑美元可能继续在 1.0500 下方震荡整理。
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