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I confirm my intention to proceed and enter this website Please direct me to the website operated by Ultima Markets , regulated by the FCA in the United Kingdom昨日,美元指数跌至数月低点,欧元和英镑成为兑美元表现最强的货币。市场情绪的转变主要受特朗普政策担忧的推动。
此前,特朗普升级了关税措施,引发全球投资者对经济前景的担忧,尤其是美国经济。这加剧了市场的避险情绪,并强化了对“特朗普衰退”(Trumpcession)的担忧——这一术语描述了因特朗普政策引发的潜在经济衰退。
美元周二连续第二天走低,跌至三个月低点。“特朗普衰退”担忧的加剧促使投资者转向避险资产,例如美国国债,推低了债券收益率,从而降低了美元计价资产的吸引力。

(美国10年期国债收益率走势;来源:Trading View)
与此同时,欧元攀升至近四个月高点,触及1.0625美元左右。英镑同样走强,兑美元汇率接近三个月高点。
尽管市场在仍在进一步观察特朗普的下一步行动,但短期焦点可能会转向即将公布的2月美国就业报告。此前的数据显示美国就业市场仍强劲,市场预计美联储将维持当前政策,而通常对美元有着支撑作用。
如果本周就业数据依然强劲,美元可能会出现短期反弹。然而,由于投资者已基本消化这一预期,美元的上行空间可能有限。此外,特朗普的政策仍可能持续对美元构成压力。

(2017-2018年美元指数走势;来源:Trading View)
回顾历史,在特朗普第一任期内,美元在其激进政策措施出台后经历了长达一年的贬值,跌离十年高点。市场现在愈发担心,“特朗普衰退”可能会重演,随着更多政策措施的公布,美元可能迎来新一轮长期下行趋势。
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