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周二,加拿大在7月的年通胀率符合预期,下降至2.5%,这导致加元走弱。但由于市场预期美联储可能降息,比较起加拿大元,美元大幅走软。美元兑加拿大元微跌0.1%,收盘于1.3620。

(美元兑加拿大元日价格图表)
当前的通胀率是自2021年3月达到2.2%以来,最接近加拿大央行2%目标的水平。那时侯,商品的价格大约在新冠疫情爆发一年后开始纷纷上涨。
加拿大央行在最近两次的会议上已经将政策利率从5%下调至4.5%。因此,市场预计将在9月4日的下一次利率公告中再次降息25个基点,并有可能在年底前再降息三次,每次降息为25个基点。许多经济学家也预测类似的降息路径,这可能会使基准利率在年底前降至3.75%。

(基准利率与通胀率同比变化)
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