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周二,加拿大9月份的年通胀率降至1.6%,低于预期的1.8%,并从8月份的2.0%进一步下跌。根据加拿大统计局的数据,通胀的缓解主要是由于汽油价格的大幅下跌,且这是自2021年2月以来消费者价格的最小年增幅。美元兑加元的汇率接近十周低点,下跌0.15%,收盘于1.3775。

(美元兑加元日线价格图,来源:Trading View)
自年初以来,加拿大的消费者价格稳步下降,并在上个月达到加拿大央行1%-3%目标区间的中点,因为高利率抑制了消费者需求和商业投资。因此,最新的通胀数据促使市场增加对下周降息50个基点的期望。
事实上,加拿大央行已经在过去三次政策会议上都把基准利率下调25个基点。上个月,加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆警告称,通胀可能会跌破目标区间,经济增长也可能会减弱,这加剧了市场对更大幅度50个基点降息的预期。因此,加拿大央行需要采取行动,提振经济并防止通胀过度下降,50个基点的降息或许是合适的解决方案。

(加拿大通胀与利率,来源:加拿大统计局)
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