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周三,澳元兑美元(AUD/USD)汇率突破0.6800水平,达到8个月以来的最高点。主要原因是因为7月同比CPI数据上涨3.5%,尽管比较6月的3.8%有所回落,但仍超出市场预期的3.4%。

(澳大利亚CPI同比数据,来源:Forex Factory)
由于CPI数据强于预期,市场略微降低了对澳大利亚储备银行在11月降息的预期,从之前降息的概率的58%,降为现在的48.4%。
然而,7月的通胀数据可能具有一定的误导性。尽管数据显示在控制通胀方面取得了显著进展,但部分改善归因于电费的回扣,所以这在一定程度上人为地降低了成本。
澳大利亚国民银行市场经济学主管塔帕斯·斯特里克兰(Tapas Strickland)指出,7月报告显示在降低商品通胀方面的进展有限。尽管如此,市场仍然预期今年会有一次降息,这部分是因为美联储几乎确定将在下个月放松政策,加拿大、欧洲和新西兰也预计将进一步降息。
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