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周三,新西兰中央银行下调利率50个基点,并表示尽管通胀已回到目标水平,但政策仍保持紧缩。这一决定促使市场预期进一步激进的宽松措施,导致新西兰元大幅下跌。此次将官方现金利率下调至4.75%的决定符合市场预期和大多数经济学家的预测。因此,纽元兑美元下跌1.23%,收盘于0.6062。

(新西兰储备银行官方现金利率,来源:Forex Factory)

(纽元兑美元日线图,来源:Trading View)
新西兰的降息与全球许多央行的举措一致,决策者们正在放松之前为应对通胀而采取的激进紧缩政策。例如,美联储在9月份的上次会议上大幅下调了50个基点。然而,新西兰的邻国澳大利亚在这一宽松趋势中却是个例外,因为澳联储表示为了抑制通胀,紧缩的政策条件仍需维持一段时间。
“委员会一致认为,下调官方现金利率50个基点是适当的,以实现并保持低而稳定的通胀,同时避免不必要的产出、就业、利率和汇率波动,” 新西兰央行在政策声明中表示。10月份的会议进一步加强了央行的鸽派立场,表明11月不会有明显的放缓迹象。由于通胀在目标范围内,而劳动力市场较为脆弱,预计新西兰央行将更快地放松利率。
“新西兰经济现在处于产能过剩的状态,鼓励价格和工资的设定行为适应低通胀环境。较低的进口价格也有助于通缩,” 新西兰央行声明补充道。一些经济学家现在预测,11月的降息幅度将从先前预期的50个基点扩大至75个基点,认为在11月至明年2月之间的较长政策评估间隙使得现金利率不必维持得如此紧缩。
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