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周一,欧元因欧元区令人失望的商业活动数据大幅下挫。法国的服务业PMI初值为48.3,远低于预期的53.0;德国的服务业PMI初值为50.6,也低于预期的51.1。

(法国服务业PMI初值,来源:Forex Factory)

(德国服务业PMI初值,来源:Forex Factory)
本月,欧元区的商业活动大幅萎缩,主要是由于占主导地位的服务业停滞,而制造业的下滑加剧。萎缩情况广泛,德国的经济衰退加深,而法国在8月份因奥运会的短暂提振后又重回萎缩。尽管人们预计到巴黎奥运会效应的消退,但此次公布的数据远比预期糟糕,暗示欧元区的增长前景相当黯淡。
因此,疲弱的数据强化了市场对欧洲央行今年进一步降息的预期。目前市场预期欧洲央行在10月会议上降息25个基点的概率约为77%。欧洲央行已在6月和本月早些时候两次降息,市场参与者正在密切关注央行的下一步行动。此外,法国计划在10月底前向欧盟委员会提交其公共债务削减计划,比此前预期的提交时间有所提前。
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