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美国上周五公布个人消费支出物价指数(PCE)数据,报告与市场预期相符,物价压力持续减弱,强化美联储今年可降息理由,美元指数随之在104.3水平摆荡。 核心PCE呈现六个月来最小月涨幅,仅上涨0.2%,而其年率回落至2.6%,是自2021年开始通胀飙升期最低读数。
该份报告增添降息可能性。 9月降息的机率从64% 爬至66%,11月降息的可能性从76%上升至78%。 12月机率从94% 微升至95%。
消息面近来主导盘势,特朗普在美国首场总统辩论获较佳评论,而他所提出政策有可能导致通胀压力重燃,这种看法使美元获得支撑力道。

(美元指数半年线图)
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