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周二,由于美国的通胀数据导致一些投资者推测加拿大央行可能会跟随美联储进行大幅降息,加元兑美元小幅下跌。加拿大8月份的年通胀率放缓至2%,低于7月份的2.5%,符合加拿大央行的通胀目标,并创下自2021年2月以来的最低水平。这一结果低于市场预期的2.1%。

(加拿大CPI同比图表,来源:Investing.com)
本月早些时候,行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆在加拿大央行的货币政策公告中强调,由于经济增长疲软,所以需要防范通胀低于目标的风险。目前加拿大的经济增长正在放缓,第三季度的GDP预计仅为加拿大央行预期的一半。失业率的稳步上升和经济扩张的减速表明,这代表之前的高利率政策有效于抑制经济。
此外,加拿大央行已连续三次下调关键政策利率,累计降低了75个基点至4.25%。市场预计央行官员将于下个月下调政策利率50个基点,以加快回归更中性的政策。中性的政策立场是指利率处于所谓的中性区间,即2.25%至3.25%之间,这是一个既不限制也不刺激经济增长的水平。因此,投资者预计2024年剩下的三次加拿大央行会议上,总计将有约100个基点的降息,意味着会有至少一次降息将超过25个基点。
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