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周四,日本央行行长植田和男表达了对美国经济前景的乐观态度,指出其强劲增长正在扩大。然而,他强调市场仍不稳定,对于日本经济风险是否在减弱任持有较为复杂的看法。
当被问及最近日元贬值对通胀的影响时,植田解释说,日本央行不仅要考虑汇率波动,还必须考虑驱动这些波动的因素,例如对美国经济的认知变化。他表示:“最近日元的下跌部分是由于对美国经济的乐观情绪增加所致。”过去四周,美元兑日元连续上涨,累计涨幅接近7%。

(美元兑日元周线图,来源:Trading View)
植田关于美国经济和市场状况的言论引发了关注,尤其是在他最近强调了美国实现“软着陆”的不确定性以及金融市场波动作为关键风险之后。这种不确定性促使日本央行在进一步加息问题上保持谨慎态度。市场的不稳定性,加上隐含波动率仍然较高,表明央行仍对市场重新陷入波动的风险保持警惕。
植田重申,如果经济按预期发展,日本央行将继续加息。然而,他也强调必须密切关注全球不确定性,例如美国的经济前景,以确定下一次加息的时机。
此外,即将到来的日本大选可能会使日本央行的政策正常化计划变得复杂。政治不稳定的前景可能会对央行的加息路径产生影响,因为它正试图从接近零的利率水平顺利提升利率。
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