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周三,美元指数下跌0.24%,收盘于101.14,也是今年以来的最低水平。此跌幅主要是由于修正后的数据显示,截至三月份,雇主增加的职位数比之前估计的少了81.8万个。

(2024年初步基准工资修订)
虽然就业数据不足以强力支撑50个基点的降息,但美联储现在在年内降息方面面临的障碍相对来得更少。然而,持续疲弱的就业市场和上升的失业率可能促使美联储更激进地降息,以避免造成经济衰退。
八月的就业和通胀报告将在九月的美联储会议之前发布。目前,根据CME集团的FedWatch工具,市场交易员预计下个月50个基点降息的概率为38%,高于周三早些时候的33%,而25个基点降息的概率则为62%。
美联储主席鲍威尔将于周五在杰克逊霍尔发表主题演讲,市场急切地等待他对下个月降息规模的暗示,以及是否可能在后续政策会议上进一步降低借贷成本。
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