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上周五,瑞士国家银行(SNB)主席马丁·施莱格尔表示,如果有必要,可能会重新引入负利率。尽管瑞士央行并不青睐负利率政策,但为了抑制投资者对避险瑞士法郎的需求,可能会采取这一措施。受此言论影响,瑞士法郎兑美元走弱,美元兑瑞士法郎(USD/CHF)上涨0.77%,收于0.8934美元。

(美元兑瑞士法郎日线价格图,来源:Trading View)
施莱格尔还强调,瑞士法郎在不确定时期可能仍是投资者首选的避险货币。虽然这带来了挑战,但瑞士有能力应对这些问题。他补充称,瑞士央行将继续致力于保持价格稳定,目标是在中期内将通胀控制在0-2%的范围内。
瑞士曾有过负利率的经验,过去曾利用这一政策来削弱瑞士法郎的强势,而瑞士法郎的升值加剧了出口商在海外需求低迷时面临的困难。然而,瑞士央行于2022年9月结束了负利率政策,与其他央行同步提高借贷成本,在成功控制通胀后转变了政策方向。
2024年,瑞士央行已三次下调基准利率,将其降至1%,并预计未来可能会进一步降息。目前市场预期,在瑞士央行12月的会议上,降息25个基点的概率为72%,降息50个基点的概率为28%。

(瑞士国家银行政策利率,来源:Forex Factory)
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