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新西兰储备银行(RBNZ)出乎市场意料将基准利率下调25个基点至5.25%,这是自2020年3月以来的首次降息。这一意外举动表明了明显的鸽派立场,其中一个原因是因为通胀已接近1%至3%的目标区间。

(新西兰联储的官方现金利率)
此前,RBNZ预计在2025年中期之前都不会降息。然而,新西兰现在与全球货币宽松的趋势相一致,加入了其他已实施降息的中央银行行列中。由于这次的降息比RBNZ比之前的预期来得更早,这无疑导致新西兰元贬值。NZD/USD汇率下跌了1.34%,收于0.59960。

(新西兰元兑美元 日线价格图)
中央银行在公告中谨慎表态,强调政策需要在较长时间内保持紧缩。然而,它预计2025年底现金利率将降至3.85%。除此之外,市场对进一步降息的预期与中央银行的悲观经济预测一致。
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