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澳大利亚通胀率大幅下降至42个月低点 

um editor

UM Editor

2024年10月30日

澳大利亚第三季度CPI回落至澳洲联储目标区间 

周三，澳大利亚统计局发布数据显示，第三季度消费者价格指数（CPI）仅上升0.2%，略低于预期的0.3%。年通胀率从3.8%降至2.8%，这是自2021年末以来，通胀首次回到澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）设定的2%-3%目标区间内。 

（澳大利亚同比CPI第三季度数据，来源：Investing.com）

（澳大利亚同比CPI第三季度数据，来源：Investing.com） 

此次下降可能受益于政府电费补贴和汽油价格的下降，而核心通胀的放缓则进一步支持了未来降息的可能性。澳洲联储关注的核心通胀指标即是经修正的均值，在本季度上升0.8%，略高于预期的0.7%，年增长率从4.0%降至3.5%。然而，服务行业的通胀水平仍然较高。 

澳洲联储自11月以来维持利率不变，将现金利率保持在4.35%，远高于疫情期间的0.1%低点。央行认为该利率足够收紧，有助于将通胀控制在2%-3%的目标区间，同时维持就业增长。在高利率的压力下，经济增长显著放缓，但核心通胀仍然顽固，劳动力市场仅略微缓解。这导致市场预计12月降息的概率仅为26%。 

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