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周三,美元在波动的交易中从14个月来的低点反弹,但投资者仍预期美联储将在11月会议上再次大幅降息,原因是劳动力市场乐观情绪减弱。欧元兑美元下跌0.42%,收于1.1133;英镑兑美元下跌0.67%,收于1.3323。

(欧元兑美元日价表,来源:Trading View)

(英镑兑美元日价表,来源:Trading View)
由于劳动力市场差距缩小,间接反映了就业市场的供需平衡,这对美国经济来说是一个不祥的信号。市场将此解读为美联储极有可能在11月会议上进行第二次紧急降息的强烈迹象。
上周,美联储启动了预期中的降息周期,并采取了大于正常幅度的50个基点降息行动。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示,此举旨在表明政策制定者在通胀压力缓解的情况下,仍致力于维持低失业率。根据芝加哥商品交易所集团的FedWatch工具,交易员目前预测美联储11月7日会议上50个基点降息的概率为59%,高于一周前的37%,而25个基点降息的概率为41%。
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