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英国9月份的年度消费者价格通胀率下降至1.7%,低于8月份的2.2%,而且这是自2021年4月以来的最低水平。根据英国国家统计局的报告,此次下降归因于机票和汽油价格的下降,且该数据低于大多数经济学家预期的1.9%。

(英国通胀数据,来源:英国国家统计局)
此外,私人部门薪资增长在截至8月的三个月内放缓至4.8%,与英格兰银行对第三季度4.8%的增长预测一致。此外,英国在截至9月的三个月内,预计职位空缺减少了34,000个,降至841,000个,接近疫情前的水平,进一步表明劳动力市场的降温。失业率也在截至8月的三个月内降至4.0%,创下今年的最低水平,同时就业人数创下了历史新高。
因此,这一系列经济数据加剧了市场对英格兰银行降息的预期。利率期货显示,投资者认为在今年年底前,英格兰银行有90%的可能性进行两次25个基点的降息,而本周早些时候这一概率为80%。此次的通胀数据消除了货币政策委员会在11月会议上投票支持降息25个基点的一个主要障碍。
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