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澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)将现金利率下调25个基点至4.1%,这是自2020年11月以来的首次降息。尽管这一举措在预期之中,但RBA的声明中带有“鹰派”语气,表明未来的降息将是逐步和谨慎的。
在货币政策声明中,RBA承认通胀和GDP增长低于预期。劳动力市场保持强劲,尽管近期数据显示,某些行业可能存在比最初预期更多的剩余产能。
RBA已修订了其通胀和失业预期,下调了通胀预测,并预测家庭支出将减少。
最新RBA预测的消费者价格指数(CPI):
在声明中,RBA指出,国内金融条件依然紧张,利率仍处于中性水平之上。虽然通胀正朝着目标区间移动,但RBA保持谨慎,警告不要过早放松政策,以免推动通胀超出2-3%的目标范围。
此次降息标志着RBA宽松周期的开始,但中央银行的语气仍然谨慎。RBA将继续采取数据驱动的方式,确保通胀能够可持续地回到目标区间。
澳联储行长米歇尔·布尔洛克在声明中强调,降息“并不意味着将来还会有进一步降息”。委员会对进一步宽松的前景保持谨慎,这也暗示我们可能要等到2025年6月发布第一季度消费者价格指数后,才可能看到下一次降息。
在最新的利率决策之后,AUDUSD出现了一些小幅波动,但整体趋势基本未受影响。

(AUD/USD 4小时图,来源:Trading View)
从技术角度来看,澳元兑美元从接近5年低点的强势回升表明,多头已经找到了支撑,尤其是在美元走弱的情况下。
突破了0.6300-0.6320的阻力区间,表明澳元兑美元的看涨反转可能即将到来,而0.6370可能会成为多头的短期阻力位。尽管RBA采取了鹰派降息,似乎没有任何因素会拖累澳元的强势,进一步支持了未来看涨的展望。
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