Week Ahead—FOMC, BoE, and Trade Talks Dominates

Weekly Market Outlook (May 5th – May 9th)

Global market sentiment remained strong last week, with U.S. and global equity markets extending gains for another consecutive week as investor confidence continued to recover. A major driver of the positive tone was President Trump softening his stance on tariffs, as he mentioned the possibility of lowering import tariffs on Chinese goods.

Meanwhile, China signaled its openness to engage in trade discussions, with the Commerce Ministry stating that the U.S. had reached out multiple times to initiate tariff negotiations. This further lifted investor sentiment across risk assets.

Adding to the optimism, the U.S. April Non-Farm Payrolls came in higher than expected, despite a slight dip from the previous month. However, underlying risks persist, especially if any unexpected policy shifts emerge from the Trump administration.

Week Ahead—FOMC, BoE, and Trade Talks Dominates

The spotlight this week will be on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on May 7 and the Bank of England’s rate decision on May 8, both of which are expected to bring increased volatility to the currency markets.

The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged in May; however, market participants have raised their bets on a potential rate cut in June, Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to deliver a 25-basis point cut, potentially marking the beginning of a dovish shift,

Still, investors should closely monitor developments in U.S.–China trade talks. Even if discussions resume, underlying risks remain—talks may stall or fail to deliver meaningful progress. As such, any initial headlines may provide only a short-term boost to market sentiment, with limited implications for long-term stability.

1. Federal Reserve’s FOMC Meeting – May 7-8^th  

The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in May; however, markets will closely analyze Chair Powell’s tone and any forward guidance. Hints of a potential cut in mid-2025 could emerge, especially as trade tensions persist and economic data continues to show signs of cooling.

2. Bank of England Rate Decision — May 8^th

The BoE is anticipated to deliver a 25bps cut, potentially initiating a new round of monetary easing. With the UK economy under pressure from global trade disruptions, a dovish shift could lead to renewed downside in the British Pound, which has shown relative strength in recent weeks.

3. US ISM Services PMI – May 5^th

The ISM Services PMI will be closely monitored as a key gauge of U.S. economic health. Following a sharp drop in the S&P Global Services PMI, this release will provide further insight into the services sector. A weaker-than-expected reading could dampen investor sentiment and weigh on U.S. equity markets.

Key Takeaways of the Week:

Despite improved sentiment and ongoing recovery in risk assets, significant uncertainty remains. With high-impact events including the FOMC meeting, BoE rate decision, and key economic data releases, markets are likely to gain clearer directional cues by the end of the week. These developments may help establish a more defined trend across FX, equities, and commodities heading into mid-May.